The Size of the LGBT Population and the Magnitude of Anti-Gay Sentiment are Substantially Underestimated

Measuring sexual orientation, behavior, and related opinions is difficult because responses are biased towards socially acceptable answers. We test whether measurements are biased even when responses are private and anonymous and use our results to identify sexuality-related norms and how they vary. We run an experiment on 2,516 U.S. participants. Participants were randomly assigned to either a “best practices method” that was computer-based and provides privacy and anonymity, or to a “veiled elicitation method” that further conceals individual responses. Answers in the veiled method preclude inference about any particular individual, but can be used to accurately estimate statistics about the population.

Comparing the two methods shows sexuality-related questions receive biased responses even under current best practices, and, for many questions, the bias is substantial. The veiled method increased self-reports of non-heterosexual identity by 65% (p<0.05) and same-sex sexual experiences by 59% (p<0.01). The veiled method also increased the rates of anti-gay sentiment. Respondents were 67% more likely to express disapproval of an openly gay manager at work (p<0.01) and 71% more likely to say it is okay to discriminate against lesbian, gay, or bisexual individuals (p<0.01). The results show non-heterosexuality and anti-gay sentiment are substantially underestimated in existing surveys, and the privacy afforded by current best practices is not always sufficient to eliminate bias. Finally, our results identify two social norms: it is perceived as socially undesirable both to be open about being gay, and to be unaccepting of gay individuals.

Paper available below:

• The Size of the LGBT Population and the Magnitude of Anti-Gay Sentiment are Substantially Underestimated, with Katherine B. Coffman and Lucas C. Coffman. Forthcoming, Management Science

Press Coverage:

• Pew Research Center Fact Tank: “Study: Polls may underestimate anti-gay sentiment and size of gay, lesbian population.” October 9, 2013.
• The Atlantic: “Surveys Dramatically Underestimate Homophobia“. October 9,2013
• Time: “Social Attitudes About Sexual Orientation May Not Be As Open As Previously Thought“. October 7, 2013.
• LA Times: “Gay population – and anti-gay feelings – may be underestimated“. Oct 11, 2013
• The Incidental Economist: “How many LGBT people are there?“. Oct 11, 2013
• Slate.com: “How Do Americans Really Feel About Gays?“. Oct 11, 2013
• The Advocate: “LGBT Population May Be Underreported in Polls“. Oct 12, 2013.
• ThinkProgress: “Study: Stigma Limits Self-Disclosure Of Gay Identities And Anti-Gay Attitudes“. Oct. 10, 2013.
• Take Two (KPCC Public Radio). “Study shows anti-gay sentiment is underestimated.” Oct 16, 2013.
• Boston Globe: “Ideas“. Oct 21, 2013.
• Psychology Today: “Homosexuality Is More Prevalent Than We Might Have Thought.” Oct 17, 2013.

Contact me about this study: